The Academy announces their yearly nominees every year on January 24th. That changed this year in order to give the members more time to see the nominated movies and the new day became January 10th. While I find the idea absolutely ridiculous, it created some unintended consequences this awards season. The first is that it made movies that opened in late December have to really push to get their films seen before the deadline (Zero Dark Thirty, Django Unchained, The Impossible). The second one is interesting because it deals with the infamous Golden Globes. While the Golden Globes are generally considered a joke and not having an impact on the Oscars, the Academy decided to make them feel less important by announcing their nominees before the Globes occur. This completely backfired because although the Globe winners didn’t get an extra spring into the nominations, they were instead able to springboard the night’s improbable winner into the probable Oscar winner with Argo. As I have previously mentioned Ben Affleck’s snub for a Best Director nomination was both shocking and unfounded, but it was probably the best thing that happened to the movie during the race for Oscar gold. One of the more unpredictable Oscar races turned boring quickly, in large part because of Argo (and Affleck’s) win at the Globes that jumpstarted their winning streak. The extra time didn’t seem to make much of an impact on some races and unprecedented impact on others. Here is my look at who will, could, and most importantly should be taking home Oscar this Sunday.
Best Animated Feature
This one is probably closer than most people think in a very solid field. Of the five movies nominated 4 of them could win and I would endorse it no question (sorry Pirates).
Will win: Wreck-It Ralph
Could win: Frankenweenie and to a lesser extent Brave, but never count out a Pixar film.
Should win: Paranorman (I’m a sucker for stop-motion animation and prefer it to Frankenweenie)
Best Supporting Actress
This race became even more dull due to the additional two weeks of campaigning and was never in doubt.
Will win: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Could win: Anne Hathaway (Les Miseables)
Should win: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) I told you it was dull.
Best Supporting Actor
In the exact opposite of the supporting actress category, there has never been a true front runner and of the experts I have, all five names have been predicted winners. It doesn’t help that all the nominees are very well deserved and have earned major honors while competing against each other.
Will win: Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) He wins as a cap to a great career for an actor not too likely to make it back to this stage.
Could win: Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook), Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master), Alan Arkin (Argo), or Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Best Actress
When the nominations were announced it was a two person race with Jessica Chastain out in front and Jennifer Lawrence right on her heels. Oh how things have changed. Chastain is now looking to be playing third fiddle and the oldest nominee in history is a 13th hour favorite.
Will win: Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Could win: Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Should win: Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) Although I am a little biased as a huge fan of her work in the past two years. If not for her I would be pulling for Naomi Watts (The Impossible).
Best Actor:
If any race was more boring than Best Supporting Actress, this would be it. It was decided the moment casting was announced.
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Could win: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Should win: Any other year I would say Joaquin Phoenix (The Master) but not against Daniel Day-Lewis.
Best Director:
The front runner for this category is Ben Affleck, except as I stated, he didn’t get the nomination. The remaining nominees will forever have an unofficial asterisk next to their name.
Will win: Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
Could win: Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Should win: Of the nominees? Ang Lee. Actually win? Your pick: Ben Affleck (Argo), Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty), or Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained).
Best Picture:
I pretty much broke this down in the opening paragraph so I will just get right to it.
Will win: Argo
Could win: Lincoln, but it would be a big upset
Should win: Zero Dark Thirty. No question, but unfortunately a very non-political film is being blamed for being too political and glamorizing torture. Watch it and I promise that won’t be the resolution you come to.
